The I2DS2 Recommendation. Global Analysis project is an initiative of I2DS2. We want to bring to the public's attention security, defence and intelligence analysis conducted by the world's leading analysis and forecasting platforms, editorials by prestigious authors and books that enrich knowledge in areas of interest to the I2DS2 community.
The reference texts are proposed by I2DS2 members and subject to an internal selection process that takes into account relevance, quality, timeliness and consistency, in line with the objectives of the I2DS2 community.
19 April 2021
Options to enhance the EU's resilience to structural risks
The coronavirus crisis has underlined the need for the European Union to devote greater efforts to anticipatory governance, and to attempt to strengthen its resilience in the face of risks from both foreseeable and unforeseeable events. This paper builds further on an initial 'mapping' in mid-2020 of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade, and a second paper last autumn which looked at the EU's capabilities to address 33 of those risks assessed as being more significant or likely, and at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal.
13 January 2021
By CSIS Technology and Intelligence Task Force
The U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) stands at the dawn of a new era of technological innovation and transformation unprecedented in its history. In this report, the CSIS Technology and Intelligence Task Force set out to understand the emerging technology landscape, identify the opportunities and challenges to applying technology to intelligence missions, and generate recommendations that will enable the IC to adapt, integrate technology, and maintain an advantage over sophisticated rivals.
3 March 2021
By Ryan Hass
China, the story goes, is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States. China has become the largest engine of global economic growth, the largest trading nation, and the largest destination for foreign investment. It has locked in major trade and investment deals in Asia and Europe and is using the Belt and Road Initiative—the largest development project of the twenty-first century—to win greater influence in every corner of the world.
Munich Security Conference
10 February 2020
In 2019, concrete security challenges seem to have become inseparable from what some would describe as the decay of the Western project: today, the West as we know it is contested both from within and from without. Part of the challenge is that we have lost a common understanding of what it means to be part of the West. All this occurs against the backdrop of the relative rise of the non-Western world and a mounting number of global challenges and crises that would require a concerted Western response. The 2020 Munich Security Conference will provide a prime opportunity not only for discussing the state of international peace and security but also for revisiting the Western project in particular. ...
The world has entered an era of drone wars. In four major interstate wars in the last five years—those in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, and Ukraine—armed drones played a dominant, perhaps decisive, role. And yet the debates about drones still center on their use against nonstate actors, such as the Taliban, or speculation about their potential role in wars between the United States and near competitors, such as China. Those discussions have led many scholars to conclude that drones are so complicated and vulnerable as to be of limited use or relevance to wars between states. Some observers argue that drones may even promote international stability: countries may be less likely to escalate a conflict if a drone, rather than an aircraft with a human pilot, is shot down. ...
”Various U.S. administrations have long wanted U.S. allies to do more, but in many parts of the world the most logical partners are authoritarian states with different interests than those of the United States. Using the proposed F-35 aircraft deal to illustrate his points, Rand Corp.’s Raphael Cohen explores the inevitable dilemmas that occur when the United States relies on allies to do the heavy lifting.” (Daniel Byman)
In November, French President Emmanuel Macron told The Economist that NATO so lacked direction that it was suffering “brain death.” The remark drew criticism from both European and U.S. officials, but when the leaders of NATO member states met in London on December 4, Macron’s words served as a catalyst. Indeed, as Macron said after the summit, his comments were like a giant “icebreaker,” making a lot of noise but clearing the way for the alliance to plow forward. ...
Texas National security Review
Contrary to what is often supposed, urban warfare is not more difficult than other types of warfare. The combat environment is neutral, just like every other environment. Urban warfare is, however, likely to be more prevalent in coming years, which is why it is important that Western armies learn to do it confidently. ...
Recent developments in transatlantic relations have reignited the debate about the need for Europeans to assume greater responsibility for their own security. Yet, efforts by European leaders to substantiate the general commitment to 'take their fate into their own hands' are so far lacking sufficient progress. ...
By Alina Polyakova And Benjamin Haddad
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in early 2019, former Vice President Joe Biden had a reassuring message for European politicians, diplomats, and military leaders worried about American disengagement: “We will be back.” ...
29 July 2019
By Stephen M. Walt
Commentators of many stripes increasingly refer to the deteriorating relationship between the United States and China as a new “cold war.” As some readers may recall, I think analogies to the earlier rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union should be viewed with ...
Most EU citizens believe that they are living in an EU in which they can no longer rely on the US security guarantee, and that the enlargement process should be halted. They believe that it is crucial to address existential challenges – such as climate change and migration – at the European level. The new leadership of the EU’s institutions should allow these political impulses to guide their approach to foreign affairs ...